Moody’s Talks – The Big Picture

Is the Credit Cycle Turning? The LevFin, CLO Markets Hold Clues

Episode Summary

Late-cycle credit pressures are building, as are questions about what’s next for US leveraged finance and CLOs, or collateralized loan obligations. CLOs raise money from institutional investors to purchase leveraged loans, thus funding corporate borrowers while offering investors a range of risk and return options. But CLO managers are assuming a defensive position as risks grow, while also preparing for opportunities. In this episode, we’re looking into what’s driving these decisions and how the data can help decipher the credit impacts.

Episode Notes

Late-cycle credit pressures are building, as are questions about what’s next for US leveraged finance and CLOs, or collateralized loan obligations. 

CLOs raise money from institutional investors to purchase leveraged loans, thus funding corporate borrowers while offering investors a range of risk and return options. 

But CLO managers are assuming a defensive position as risks grow, while also preparing for opportunities.  

In this episode, we’re looking into what’s driving these decisions and how the data can help decipher the credit impacts. 

Host: Paloma San Valentin, Managing Director, North America Corporate Finance, Moody’s Ratings 

Guests:  

• Lyuba Petrova, Managing Director, Global Head of Leveraged Finance, Moody’s Ratings 
• Al Remeza, Executive Director, Head of the US Corporate Structured Finance Surveillance rating team, Moody’s Ratings 

Related Research:  

• Leveraged Finance – US - Late-cycle signals point to rising leveraged finance risk 21 September 2026 
• Corporate Defaults and Recoveries — US, EMEA – Recovery challenges intensify as credit cycle matures 22 September 2026 
• CLOs – US – Asset quality improves at expense of par amid low spreads, economic uncertainty 23 September 2026